Analysis Articles
New York’s Employment Recovery: Almost There but Virus Effects Linger, New Issues Emerge
Gillian Fuchs and James Orr
January 31, 2024
Nearly four years after the onset of Covid-19 how is employment in New York City faring? In this post we outline the pattern of recovery of employment in the City and show how employment
Silicon Valley Bank failure explained
March 28,2023
On March 10, 2023 the American banking system suffered the second biggest bank collapse in its history. How did this happen? In this post we examine the reasons behind the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), which caused tremendous
New York City’s Evolving Jobs Recovery
September 7, 2022
Overall employment in New York City has not fully recovered from the huge shock it took following the Covid-19 outbreak in early 2020. But looking across industries, both the depth of the downturn and
Will China Surpass the U.S. to Become the Number One Economic Power?
By Hengzhong Liu
June 18/2022
This article argues that the current wave of deglobalization will not stop China from surpassing the United States as the largest economy in the next decade, but it will prevent China from becoming the
Covid-19 in New York City: The Pandemic Unequally Impacts New Yorkers in Health and Employment
By Fotis Siokis
January 7, 2022
In early March 2020, the Covid-19 virus spread quickly across the United States and virulently disrupted every facet of the society. A public health crisis immediately developed into an
New York’s Ongoing Employment Recovery from the Pandemic
December 13, 2021
Recent employment data show New York is continuing its recovery from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the efforts to contain it, though job counts in both the state and the city have yet to reach
The State of the Recovery in Public Sector Jobs, Part One
by Joseph van der Naald
August 25, 2021
A great deal of attention has been paid recently to increasing job counts and declining unemployment claims. The Department of Labor’s August 6 news release indicated that July witnessed
The Beginning of a new chapter as Inflation and economic growth take center stage: The Fed and the two faces of Janus
by Siokis Fotios
July 30, 2021
As we move away from the virulent pandemic, economic growth is gaining pace, while inflation is threatening to run rampant. With employment still 7.3 million jobs below its pre-pandemic level, how will the Fed respond?
New York’s Recovery from COVID-19: Gaining Ground but a Ways to Go
By Fadime Demiralp and James Orr
May 17, 2021
Recent employment data for New York show the job recovery from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the efforts to contain is continuing but still has
A Primer on Covid-19 and its Impact on the Supply Chains in China
By Zhio Xi
April 30, 2021
The issue of supply chains has been one of the most discussed economic topics in China recently. Since joining the WTO in 2001, China’s integration into the global economy has been accompanied by the reshaping of
A Look at the New York State Budget
James Orr and Merih Uctum
February 10, 2021
Governor Cuomo recently announced the NY State budget for this year, the FY 2022 Executive Budget Financial Plan. Is New York in a deep budget hole? Will a new Federal spending bill help? In this post we dissect the executive budget and examine how economic developments affect budget projections and the bottom line for the current budget plan. Read more
New York’s Economy Trying to Heal From the COVID-19 Crisis
Fadime Demiralp and James Orr
October 31, 2020
Deep declines in employment across New York resulted from the efforts to contain the COVID-19 outbreak. Where does the economy stand? What factors will affect the recovery? We address these questions in this post. Read more
The Fed’s enlarged balance sheet: The Expanding Importance of Bank Reserves (Part II)
Fotis Siokis
September 30, 2020
With an enlarged balance sheet, what is the new operating regime of the Fed (or how does it conduct monetary policy) and what are its options? In this second post we address these questions. Read more
The Federal Reserve and its balance sheet: A Herculean task in mitigating the economic effects of the coronavirus pandemic (Part I)
Fotis Siokis
July 30, 2020
Global pandemic events in history, beyond death and destruction, have caused major economic fallout and collapses in international trade. Read more
The Pandemic and the Emerging Markets Crisis: How Fragile are the Economies?
Utku Demir and Merih Uctum
June 11, 2020
The Emerging Market (EM) economies that came out of the 2008 financial crisis relatively faster than advanced economies are hard hit by a quadruple-whammy this time: the pandemic, capital outflows, economic recession, and debt crisis.Read more
The New York Economy Amid the Coronavirus Crisis
James Orr and Zhuo Xi
April 26, 2020
New York, along with the rest of the nation and world, is in the midst of the coronavirus crisis. It is hard to comprehend the tragic loss of more than almost 17,000 lives (as of April 27) statewide including more than 11,000 in New York City. Read more
The Opioid Crisis in the New York Area: A First Look
Robert Utzinger
February 17, 2020
The United States has been experiencing an increase in the number of deaths due to suicide and drug overdose. In this article I first explain this problem, review the theories behind this phenomenon focusing on drug abuseRead more
New York City Jobs Up but Growth Moderates Through the Third Quarter 2019
Meng-Ting Chen and James Orr
December 29, 2019
New York City employment is now well into its ninth year of growth and jobs across a variety of sector continue to expand. Read more
Lessons from Taiwan’s Healthcare Reform
William B. Thorne
November 27, 2019
Taiwan's single-payer National Health Insurance system was implemented in 1995 and designed using the U.S. Medicare program as a template.Read more
Unconventional Monetary Policies Become Conventional After All?
Fotios Siokis
October 21, 2019
What are unconventional monetary policies? How are they implemented in the European Union? What does the future look like? In this article we address these questions. On September 12,2019, the President of the European Central Bank (ECB) announced a new monetary stimulus package... Read more
Trump’s Trade Quagmire
Paul Krugman
August 30, 2019
Remember the Vietnam quagmire? In political discourse, “quagmire” has come to have a quite specific meaning. It’s what happens when a government has committed itself to a policy that isn’t working but can’t bring itself to admit failure and cut its losses.Read more
U.S. – China Trade Conflict: Impacts on China
Zhuo Xi
July 23, 2019
Starting from the different positions held by the Trump administration and the Chinese government on issues such as the bilateral trade balance, market access, and intellectual property transfers, China and the U.S., the world’s two largest economies, have been quarreling over trade for more than a year. Read more
A Primer on Democratic Socialism
Twisha Asher
June 30, 2019
In 2017, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez beat Joe Crowley to claim the seat for New York’s 14th district in a momentous political upset. As a self-described Democratic Socialist, Ocasio-Cortez’s election spurred debate across the political spectrum. Read more
Janet Yellen in Conversation with Paul Krugman
Fotios Siokis
May 30, 2019
On December 10, 2018, the Graduate Center hosted an attention-grabbing discussion on the causes of the Great Recession and the possibility of a future downturn due to high levels of corporate indebtedness. Read more
Sturdy Job Growth in New York City Continues
James Orr
April 29, 2019
The recovery and expansion of employment in New York City that began following the financial crisis and downturn continued into its ninth year in early 2019. This post examines recent overall job growth in the city and... Read more
Measuring Inequality… Are we doing it right?
Andreas Kakolyris
April 01, 2019
Two years after the death of Sir Anthony Barnes “Tony” Atkinson, characterized as the father of modern inequality research by Paul Krugman, the question of measuring inequality remains more crucial than ever. Read more
The Sword of Damocles (Part II): The Precariousness of the Greek Banking System during the Great Sovereign Debt Crisis
Fotios Siokis
March 04, 2019
With the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 and the transmission of the crisis to world financial markets, financial liquidity started to drain and investors’ confidence began to deteriorate. Central banks around the globe initiated unprecedented expansions of their liquidity... Read more
The Sword of Damocles (Part I): The Precariousness of the Greek Banking System During the Great Sovereign Debt Crisis
Fotios Siokis
February 19, 2019
The Greek economy appears finally to have turned the corner with the Government’s announcement, in August 2018, that the country has exited its third bailout package. This article examines the role of banks in the recovery and the debt crisis. Read more
Melting Snowballs and the Winter of Debt
Paul Krugman
January 31, 2019
Do you remember the winter of debt? In late 2010 and early 2011, the U.S. economy had barely begun to recover from the 2008 financial crisis. Around 9 percent of the labor force was still unemployed... Read more
Immigrant Entrepreneurship in the United States
Yoshiko Oka
January 10, 2019
On May 25, 2018, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced a proposal to end the International Entrepreneur Rule, which was published at the end of the Obama Administration. Unlike many other countries, the United States has no visa... Read more
The Credit Crunch and the Great Recession
Paul Krugman
December 08, 2018
Ben Bernanke wrote a paper arguing that the financial crisis and the resulting credit crunch were central to the Great Recession. His summary measures of financial conditions fall into two categories... Read more
Argentina’s Latest Crisis
Meng-Ting Chen and Joseph van der Naald
November 16, 2018
Following a stunning fall in the value of its peso, a total loss of nearly 50% for 2018, and interest rates hitting 60%, Argentina’s economy appeared to be facing the strong likelihood of a crisis. While the government responded by taking a number of measures... Read more
Why is New York Job Growth Slowing?
Fadime Demiralp and James Orr
October 31, 2018
Employment data through the third quarter of 2018 show job growth in New York City and State continuing to moderate from the relatively high rates reached earlier in the recovery. In this post we examine the sources of this cooling off of job... Read more
The Turkish Currency and Debt Crises
Merih Uctum and Zhuo Xi
September 22, 2018
On August 9 the Turkish currency, the Lira, hit record lows and rattled emerging markets. The travails of the Argentinian economy subsequently weakened the Lira further. In this analysis article, we examine the economic and financial reasons behind the turmoil... Read more
A Primer on Real Versus Nominal
Harvey Gram
July 22, 2018
The word “nominal” suggests insignificance. A “nominal tip” is small. “Nominally in charge” means “in name only” i.e. not really in charge. A money-valued variable such as GDP in dollars, pesos, Euros, etc. is described as... Read more
A Primer on Stocks and Flows (Part 2)
Harvey Gram
June 06, 2018
“Debts” and “deficits” seem to have negative connotations. Still, every debt/liability for one party is a credit/asset for some counter-party who willingly holds the corresponding security; and every deficit has its matching surplus somewhere in a complete and consistent set of accounts. Read more
A Primer on Stocks and Flows (Part 1)
Harvey Gram
May 18, 2018
The distinction between stocks and flows is essential to economic reasoning. In many cases, it is just common sense. If I tell you that my income is $1000, am I a prince or a pauper? Is it $1000 per hour or $1000 per year? Income is a flow, which must have a time dimension in order to be... Read more
A Primer on Exchange Traded Funds: Costs and Benefits
Ernesto Garcia
April 30, 2018
Exchanged Traded Funds (ETFs) have been around since 1989. By the end of 2017, global ETF assets totaled $4.569 trillion. The main reason ETFs have become so popular is straightforward—an individual investor can own, through the ETF, a basket of assets that... Read more
U.S. Tax Reform: Where Are We Now?
Rubaiyat Tasnim and the ESG
April 12, 2018
On February 28, 2018, the Graduate Center Public Programs and the Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality held a panel on tax reform where experts discussed its implications and how it will impact different constituencies. Panelists were: Larry Kotlikoff... Read more
New York City Job Growth: Healthy, but Divergent Across Sectors
James Orr
March 27, 2018
Recently-released employment data show job growth in New York City in 2017 was down only mildly from its pace in 2016 and is still above the comparable nationwide rate. On an average annual basis, employment in New York City expanded 2.0 percent in 2017 following a gain of... Read more
The Welfare State in the Age of Globalization
Branko Milanovic
March 05, 2018
It has become a truism to say that the welfare state is under stress from the effects of globalization and migration and thus may not be able to provide the same level of income support that it had provided in the past. Read more
Why 20th Century Tools Cannot Be Used to Address 21st Century Income Inequality
Branko Milanovic
February 16, 2018
The remarkable period of reduced income and wealth inequality in the rich countries, roughly from the end of the Second World War to the early 1980s, relied on four pillars: strong trade unions, mass education, high taxes and large government transfers. Read more
How Should We Think About the Effects of Corporate Tax Cuts?
Paul Krugman
February 08, 2018
Late last year Republicans enacted a huge tax cut, mainly for corporations. They then seized on some seemingly supportive data points – investment announcements by some major corporations, bonuses paid to some employees, an uptick in some measures of wage growth... Read more
Dream Hoarders: Is the Upper Middle Class Leaving Everyone Else Behind?
Andreas Kakolyris
January 30, 2018
On November 15, 2017, the City University of New York Graduate Center and the Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality co-hosted a presentation by Richard Reeves, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, on the topic... Read more
A Primer on Rules of Origin in NAFTA Negotiations and What Is Next
Richard J Nugent III
December 22, 2017
The latest round of negotiations of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on November 21 ended with no major breakthroughs on contentious issues such as autos, dairy and rules of origin among others. The US administration’s demand that at least half of a NAFTA-qualifying vehicle... Read more
Why Does It Still Not Feel Like Recovery? A Look at Industry Performance
The Economic Studies Group
November 30, 2017
The recovery of activity following the Great Recession got off to a slow start compared to previous cycles. The recession was characterized by deep declines in output (GDP) and the largest increases in the unemployment rate since the 1930s, and it wasn’t until six years into the recovery... Read more
Greek Debt in Historical Perspective: An Opinion Article
Anthony Rodolakis
November 22, 2017
Current fiscal proposals are projected to lead to a sizeable increase in U.S. debt and while people point to the Greek crisis to warn about high debt, a closer look at Greece’s debt history reveals few similarities. Modern Greek economic history is a history of debt. Read more
The Future of Health Care in America: A Panel Discussion at the Graduate Center
Merih Uctum
October 31, 2017
On October 2, 2017, the Graduate Center hosted a debate on healthcare policy with distinguished panelists: Jonathan Gruber, MIT, one of the main advisors on Obamacare, and the previous health reform known as Romneycare... Read more
Is the New York Economy Slowing Down?
James Orr
October 26, 2017
Recently-released employment figures show the number of jobs in New York State and New York City declined sharply in September: The state lost about 34,000 jobs and about two-thirds of the decline occurred in the city, suggesting a possible slowing of the robust employment... Read more
Rising Interest Rates, Mortgage Interest Rates, and New York Home Prices
Richmond Kyei Fordjour
September 15, 2017
Conventional wisdom tells us that a rise in interest rates hurts the real estate sector since higher mortgage rates discourage first-time homebuyers and raises costs of existing mortgages. Surprisingly, the recent trends in mortgage rates and in housing market indices do not support this view. Read more