Analysis Articles

New York’s Employment Recovery: Almost There but Virus Effects Linger, New Issues Emerge

January 31st, 2024|Comments Off on New York’s Employment Recovery: Almost There but Virus Effects Linger, New Issues Emerge

Gillian Fuchs and James Orr
January 31, 2024

Nearly four years after the onset of Covid-19 how is employment in New York City faring? In this post we outline the pattern of recovery of employment in the City and show how employment

Silicon Valley Bank failure explained

March 28th, 2023|Comments Off on Silicon Valley Bank failure explained

March 28,2023

On March 10, 2023 the American banking system suffered the second biggest bank collapse in its history. How did this happen? In this post we examine the reasons behind the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), which caused tremendous

New York City’s Evolving Jobs Recovery

September 12th, 2022|Comments Off on New York City’s Evolving Jobs Recovery

September 7, 2022

Overall employment in New York City has not fully recovered from the huge shock it took following the Covid-19 outbreak in early 2020. But looking across industries, both the depth of the downturn and

Covid-19 in New York City: The Pandemic Unequally Impacts New Yorkers in Health and Employment

January 8th, 2022|Comments Off on Covid-19 in New York City: The Pandemic Unequally Impacts New Yorkers in Health and Employment

By Fotis Siokis
January 7, 2022

In early March 2020, the Covid-19 virus spread quickly across the United States and virulently disrupted every facet of the society. A public health crisis immediately developed into an

New York’s Ongoing Employment Recovery from the Pandemic

December 16th, 2021|Comments Off on New York’s Ongoing Employment Recovery from the Pandemic

James Orr

December 13, 2021

Recent employment data show New York is continuing its recovery from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the efforts to contain it, though job counts in both the state and the city have yet to reach

The Beginning of a new chapter as Inflation and economic growth take center stage: The Fed and the two faces of Janus

July 30th, 2021|Comments Off on The Beginning of a new chapter as Inflation and economic growth take center stage: The Fed and the two faces of Janus

by Siokis Fotios

July 30, 2021

As we move away from the virulent pandemic, economic growth is gaining pace, while inflation is threatening to run rampant. With employment still 7.3 million jobs below its pre-pandemic level, how will the Fed respond?

A Primer on Covid-19 and its Impact on the Supply Chains in China

May 2nd, 2021|Comments Off on A Primer on Covid-19 and its Impact on the Supply Chains in China

By Zhio Xi
April 30, 2021

 

The issue of supply chains has been one of the most discussed economic topics in China recently. Since joining the WTO in 2001, China’s integration into the global economy has been accompanied by the reshaping of

A Look at the New York State Budget

February 11th, 2021|Comments Off on A Look at the New York State Budget

James Orr and Merih Uctum
February 10, 2021

Governor Cuomo recently announced the NY State budget for this year, the FY 2022 Executive Budget Financial Plan. Is New York in a deep budget hole? Will a new Federal spending bill help? In this post we dissect the executive budget and examine how economic developments affect budget projections and the bottom line for the current budget plan. Read more

  • Credit: John Minchillo/AP

New York’s Economy Trying to Heal From the COVID-19 Crisis

October 31st, 2020|Comments Off on New York’s Economy Trying to Heal From the COVID-19 Crisis

Fadime Demiralp and James Orr
October 31, 2020

Deep declines in employment across New York resulted from the efforts to contain the COVID-19 outbreak. Where does the economy stand? What factors will affect the recovery? We address these questions in this post. Read more

The Fed’s enlarged balance sheet: The Expanding Importance of Bank Reserves (Part II)

September 30th, 2020|Comments Off on The Fed’s enlarged balance sheet: The Expanding Importance of Bank Reserves (Part II)

Fotis Siokis
September 30, 2020

With an enlarged balance sheet, what is the new operating regime of the Fed (or how does it conduct monetary policy) and what are its options? In this second post we address these questions. Read more

The Federal Reserve and its balance sheet: A Herculean task in mitigating the economic effects of the coronavirus pandemic (Part I)

July 31st, 2020|Comments Off on The Federal Reserve and its balance sheet: A Herculean task in mitigating the economic effects of the coronavirus pandemic (Part I)

Fotis Siokis
July 30, 2020

Global pandemic events in history, beyond death and destruction, have caused major economic fallout and collapses in international trade. Read more

The Pandemic and the Emerging Markets Crisis: How Fragile are the Economies?

June 11th, 2020|Comments Off on The Pandemic and the Emerging Markets Crisis: How Fragile are the Economies?

Utku Demir and Merih Uctum 
June 11, 2020

The Emerging Market (EM) economies that came out of the 2008 financial crisis relatively faster than advanced economies are hard hit by a quadruple-whammy this time: the pandemic, capital outflows, economic recession, and debt crisis.Read more

The New York Economy Amid the Coronavirus Crisis

April 27th, 2020|Comments Off on The New York Economy Amid the Coronavirus Crisis

James Orr and Zhuo Xi
April 26, 2020

New York, along with the rest of the nation and world, is in the midst of the coronavirus crisis. It is hard to comprehend the tragic loss of more than almost 17,000 lives (as of April 27) statewide including more than 11,000 in New York City. Read more

The Opioid Crisis in the New York Area: A First Look

February 18th, 2020|Comments Off on The Opioid Crisis in the New York Area: A First Look

Robert Utzinger
February 17, 2020

The United States has been experiencing an increase in the number of deaths due to suicide and drug overdose. In this article I first explain this problem, review the theories behind this phenomenon focusing on drug abuseRead more

Unconventional Monetary Policies Become Conventional After All?

October 21st, 2019|Comments Off on Unconventional Monetary Policies Become Conventional After All?

Fotios Siokis
October 21, 2019

What are unconventional monetary policies? How are they implemented in the European Union? What does the future look like? In this article we address these questions. On September 12,2019, the President of the European Central Bank (ECB) announced a new monetary stimulus package... Read more

Trump’s Trade Quagmire

August 30th, 2019|Comments Off on Trump’s Trade Quagmire

Paul Krugman
August 30, 2019

Remember the Vietnam quagmire? In political discourse, “quagmire” has come to have a quite specific meaning. It’s what happens when a government has committed itself to a policy that isn’t working but can’t bring itself to admit failure and cut its losses.Read more

U.S. – China Trade Conflict: Impacts on China

July 23rd, 2019|Comments Off on U.S. – China Trade Conflict: Impacts on China

Zhuo Xi
July 23, 2019

Starting from the different positions held by the Trump administration and the Chinese government on issues such as the bilateral trade balance, market access, and intellectual property transfers, China and the U.S., the world’s two largest economies, have been quarreling over trade for more than a year. Read more

A Primer on Democratic Socialism

June 30th, 2019|Comments Off on A Primer on Democratic Socialism

Twisha Asher
June 30, 2019

In 2017, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez beat Joe Crowley to claim the seat for New York’s 14th district in a momentous political upset. As a self-described Democratic Socialist, Ocasio-Cortez’s election spurred debate across the political spectrum. Read more

Janet Yellen in Conversation with Paul Krugman

May 30th, 2019|Comments Off on Janet Yellen in Conversation with Paul Krugman

Fotios Siokis
May 30, 2019

On December 10, 2018, the Graduate Center hosted an attention-grabbing discussion on the causes of the Great Recession and the possibility of a future downturn due to high levels of corporate indebtedness. Read more

Sturdy Job Growth in New York City Continues

May 3rd, 2019|Comments Off on Sturdy Job Growth in New York City Continues

James Orr
April 29, 2019

The recovery and expansion of employment in New York City that began following the financial crisis and downturn continued into its ninth year in early 2019. This post examines recent overall job growth in the city and... Read more

Measuring Inequality… Are we doing it right?

April 2nd, 2019|Comments Off on Measuring Inequality… Are we doing it right?

Andreas Kakolyris
April 01, 2019

Two years after the death of Sir Anthony Barnes “Tony” Atkinson, characterized as the father of modern inequality research by Paul Krugman, the question of measuring inequality remains more crucial than ever. Read more

The Sword of Damocles (Part II): The Precariousness of the Greek Banking System during the Great Sovereign Debt Crisis

March 4th, 2019|Comments Off on The Sword of Damocles (Part II): The Precariousness of the Greek Banking System during the Great Sovereign Debt Crisis

Fotios Siokis
March 04, 2019

With the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 and the transmission of the crisis to world financial markets, financial liquidity started to drain and investors’ confidence began to deteriorate. Central banks around the globe initiated unprecedented expansions of their liquidity... Read more

The Sword of Damocles (Part I): The Precariousness of the Greek Banking System During the Great Sovereign Debt Crisis

February 19th, 2019|Comments Off on The Sword of Damocles (Part I): The Precariousness of the Greek Banking System During the Great Sovereign Debt Crisis

Fotios Siokis
February 19, 2019

The Greek economy appears finally to have turned the corner with the Government’s announcement, in August 2018, that the country has exited its third bailout package. This article examines the role of banks in the recovery and the debt crisis. Read more

Melting Snowballs and the Winter of Debt

January 31st, 2019|Comments Off on Melting Snowballs and the Winter of Debt

Paul Krugman
January 31, 2019

Do you remember the winter of debt? In late 2010 and early 2011, the U.S. economy had barely begun to recover from the 2008 financial crisis. Around 9 percent of the labor force was still unemployed... Read more

Immigrant Entrepreneurship in the United States

January 11th, 2019|Comments Off on Immigrant Entrepreneurship in the United States

Yoshiko Oka
January 10, 2019

On May 25, 2018, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced a proposal to end the International Entrepreneur Rule, which was published at the end of the Obama Administration. Unlike many other countries, the United States has no visa... Read more

The Credit Crunch and the Great Recession

December 8th, 2018|Comments Off on The Credit Crunch and the Great Recession

Paul Krugman
December 08, 2018

Ben Bernanke wrote a paper arguing that the financial crisis and the resulting credit crunch were central to the Great Recession. His summary measures of financial conditions fall into two categories... Read more

Argentina’s Latest Crisis

November 16th, 2018|Comments Off on Argentina’s Latest Crisis

Meng-Ting Chen and Joseph van der Naald
November 16, 2018

Following a stunning fall in the value of its peso, a total loss of nearly 50% for 2018, and interest rates hitting 60%, Argentina’s economy appeared to be facing the strong likelihood of a crisis. While the government responded by taking a number of measures... Read more

Why is New York Job Growth Slowing?

October 31st, 2018|Comments Off on Why is New York Job Growth Slowing?

Fadime Demiralp and James Orr
October 31, 2018

Employment data through the third quarter of 2018 show job growth in New York City and State continuing to moderate from the relatively high rates reached earlier in the recovery. In this post we examine the sources of this cooling off of job... Read more

The Turkish Currency and Debt Crises

September 22nd, 2018|Comments Off on The Turkish Currency and Debt Crises

Merih Uctum and Zhuo Xi
September 22, 2018

On August 9 the Turkish currency, the Lira, hit record lows and rattled emerging markets. The travails of the Argentinian economy subsequently weakened the Lira further. In this analysis article, we examine the economic and financial reasons behind the turmoil... Read more

A Primer on Real Versus Nominal

July 22nd, 2018|Comments Off on A Primer on Real Versus Nominal

Harvey Gram
July 22, 2018

The word “nominal” suggests insignificance. A “nominal tip” is small. “Nominally in charge” means “in name only” i.e. not really in charge. A money-valued variable such as GDP in dollars, pesos, Euros, etc. is described as... Read more

A Primer on Stocks and Flows (Part 2)

June 6th, 2018|Comments Off on A Primer on Stocks and Flows (Part 2)

Harvey Gram
June 06, 2018

“Debts” and “deficits” seem to have negative connotations. Still, every debt/liability for one party is a credit/asset for some counter-party who willingly holds the corresponding security; and every deficit has its matching surplus somewhere in a complete and consistent set of accounts. Read more

A Primer on Stocks and Flows (Part 1)

May 19th, 2018|Comments Off on A Primer on Stocks and Flows (Part 1)

Harvey Gram
May 18, 2018

The distinction between stocks and flows is essential to economic reasoning. In many cases, it is just common sense. If I tell you that my income is $1000, am I a prince or a pauper? Is it $1000 per hour or $1000 per year? Income is a flow, which must have a time dimension in order to be... Read more

A Primer on Exchange Traded Funds: Costs and Benefits

April 30th, 2018|Comments Off on A Primer on Exchange Traded Funds: Costs and Benefits

Ernesto Garcia
April 30, 2018

Exchanged Traded Funds (ETFs) have been around since 1989. By the end of 2017, global ETF assets totaled $4.569 trillion. The main reason ETFs have become so popular is straightforward—an individual investor can own, through the ETF, a basket of assets that... Read more

U.S. Tax Reform: Where Are We Now?

April 13th, 2018|Comments Off on U.S. Tax Reform: Where Are We Now?

Rubaiyat Tasnim and the ESG
April 12, 2018

On February 28, 2018, the Graduate Center Public Programs and the Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality held a panel on tax reform where experts discussed its implications and how it will impact different constituencies. Panelists were: Larry Kotlikoff... Read more

New York City Job Growth: Healthy, but Divergent Across Sectors

March 28th, 2018|Comments Off on New York City Job Growth: Healthy, but Divergent Across Sectors

James Orr
March 27, 2018

Recently-released employment data show job growth in New York City in 2017 was down only mildly from its pace in 2016 and is still above the comparable nationwide rate. On an average annual basis, employment in New York City expanded 2.0 percent in 2017 following a gain of... Read more

The Welfare State in the Age of Globalization

March 6th, 2018|Comments Off on The Welfare State in the Age of Globalization

Branko Milanovic
March 05, 2018

It has become a truism to say that the welfare state is under stress from the effects of globalization and migration and thus may not be able to provide the same level of income support that it had provided in the past. Read more

Why 20th Century Tools Cannot Be Used to Address 21st Century Income Inequality

February 16th, 2018|Comments Off on Why 20th Century Tools Cannot Be Used to Address 21st Century Income Inequality

Branko Milanovic
February 16, 2018

The remarkable period of reduced income and wealth inequality in the rich countries, roughly from the end of the Second World War to the early 1980s, relied on four pillars: strong trade unions, mass education, high taxes and large government transfers. Read more

How Should We Think About the Effects of Corporate Tax Cuts?

February 8th, 2018|Comments Off on How Should We Think About the Effects of Corporate Tax Cuts?

Paul Krugman
February 08, 2018

Late last year Republicans enacted a huge tax cut, mainly for corporations. They then seized on some seemingly supportive data points – investment announcements by some major corporations, bonuses paid to some employees, an uptick in some measures of wage growth... Read more

Dream Hoarders: Is the Upper Middle Class Leaving Everyone Else Behind?

January 30th, 2018|Comments Off on Dream Hoarders: Is the Upper Middle Class Leaving Everyone Else Behind?

Andreas Kakolyris
January 30, 2018

On November 15, 2017, the City University of New York Graduate Center and the Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality co-hosted a presentation by Richard Reeves, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, on the topic... Read more

A Primer on Rules of Origin in NAFTA Negotiations and What Is Next

December 31st, 2017|Comments Off on A Primer on Rules of Origin in NAFTA Negotiations and What Is Next

Richard J Nugent III
December 22, 2017

The latest round of negotiations of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on November 21 ended with no major breakthroughs on contentious issues such as autos, dairy and rules of origin among others. The US administration’s demand that at least half of a NAFTA-qualifying vehicle... Read more

Why Does It Still Not Feel Like Recovery? A Look at Industry Performance

November 30th, 2017|Comments Off on Why Does It Still Not Feel Like Recovery? A Look at Industry Performance

The Economic Studies Group
November 30, 2017

The recovery of activity following the Great Recession got off to a slow start compared to previous cycles. The recession was characterized by deep declines in output (GDP) and the largest increases in the unemployment rate since the 1930s, and it wasn’t until six years into the recovery... Read more

Greek Debt in Historical Perspective: An Opinion Article

November 22nd, 2017|Comments Off on Greek Debt in Historical Perspective: An Opinion Article

Anthony Rodolakis
November 22, 2017

Current fiscal proposals are projected to lead to a sizeable increase in U.S. debt and while people point to the Greek crisis to warn about high debt, a closer look at Greece’s debt history reveals few similarities. Modern Greek economic history is a history of debt. Read more

The Future of Health Care in America: A Panel Discussion at the Graduate Center

November 1st, 2017|Comments Off on The Future of Health Care in America: A Panel Discussion at the Graduate Center

Merih Uctum
October 31, 2017

On October 2, 2017, the Graduate Center hosted a debate on healthcare policy with distinguished panelists: Jonathan Gruber, MIT, one of the main advisors on Obamacare, and the previous health reform known as Romneycare... Read more

Is the New York Economy Slowing Down?

October 27th, 2017|Comments Off on Is the New York Economy Slowing Down?

James Orr
October 26, 2017

Recently-released employment figures show the number of jobs in New York State and New York City declined sharply in September: The state lost about 34,000 jobs and about two-thirds of the decline occurred in the city, suggesting a possible slowing of the robust employment... Read more

Rising Interest Rates, Mortgage Interest Rates, and New York Home Prices

September 16th, 2017|Comments Off on Rising Interest Rates, Mortgage Interest Rates, and New York Home Prices

Richmond Kyei Fordjour
September 15, 2017

Conventional wisdom tells us that a rise in interest rates hurts the real estate sector since higher mortgage rates discourage first-time homebuyers and raises costs of existing mortgages. Surprisingly, the recent trends in mortgage rates and in housing market indices do not support this view. Read more